New findings suggest unprecedented temperature trend could soon subside: 'Will fall out of record territory in the next month or two'
Earth has seen record-breaking monthly global temperatures since June 2023, but some scientists think the streak may end soon.
What's happening?
March was the 10th straight month with record-high global temperatures. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service recently declared that the streak has stretched to 11 months with its April assessment. It reported that the average air temperature was 59.05 degrees Fahrenheit (15.03 degrees Celsius), about 1.21 degrees Fahrenheit (about 0.67 degrees Celsius) more than the 1991-2020 climate average for April.
Yet there is hope that the record-breaking streak may soon be over.
"If 2024 continues to follow its expected trajectory, global temperatures will fall out of record territory in the next month or two," climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said, according to the Washington Post.
Why does this matter?
The margins by which the most recent few months have set record temperatures globally have shrunk.
Per the Post, the September 2023 margin of about 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) over the previous record average for September was the largest ever seen, and October's margin was almost as significant.
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More recently, March 2024 exceeded the previous record from March 2016 by about 0.18 degrees Fahrenheit (a tenth of a degree Celsius), per Copernicus. The service reports that this April was about 0.25 degrees Fahrenheit (0.14 degrees Celsius) higher than the previous April record set in 2016.
This year's expected changes in the Pacific Ocean could help end the planet's record-breaking streak.
The once-strong 2023-24 El Niño system is weakening, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. El Niño is a climate pattern shift resulting in warm water pooling along and near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific. It alters weather patterns around the world, and its effects can include flooding along the South American coast in the Ecuador and Peru regions as well as drought conditions in southern Africa.
The Pacific Ocean should soon transition to a La Niña, when cool water pools in the eastern Pacific. Computer models predict a reasonably rapid switch to a La Niña pattern later this summer or during fall. A La Niña tends to have more of a cooling effect on our planet overall.
"If the anomaly does not stabilize by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated," NASA's Dr. Gavin Schmidt wrote recently in the scientific journal Nature.
What can I do to help reverse the global temperature trend?
We have an impact on this planet, and collectively, we can make a difference so that monthly streaks of record-breaking global temperatures will be a thing of the past.
Changing the way we get around, get rid of old stuff, get new clothes, and use electricity, gas, and water can all have a positive influence on our Earth.
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